Many people walk into a salary conversation and wait for the other person to name a number. It feels polite and safe. But the first number said out loud tends to pull the whole conversation toward it.
This has been tested in negotiation experiments. In three studies, whoever made the first offer got a better outcome, whether they were the buyer or the seller, and the first offer was a good predictor of the final price. The effect disappeared when the other side focused instead on their own goal or on the other party's alternatives. The first offer steers, but only if you let it.
Pick your path based on where you stand:
- Find your number if you don't know what's reasonable.
- Say your number first if you're prepared.
- Hold on to your goal if they've already named a number.
- Build your case over six months if you want to go further.
A first step today: find out what others in your profession and region earn, and write down three numbers: your lowest, your reasonable and your high.
Many people walk into a salary conversation and wait for the other person to name a number. It feels polite, and it feels safe, because you don't risk asking for too much. But the first number said out loud tends to pull the whole conversation toward it, and if you wait, you let the other person set the starting point. This article covers what experiments say about that, how to prepare your number, and four paths to take into the conversation.
The first offer becomes an anchor
In 2001, Galinsky and Mussweiler looked at what happens when two parties negotiate a price. In three experiments, participants negotiated, sometimes face to face and sometimes by email, and the researchers varied who made the first offer. Whoever made the first offer, buyer or seller, got a better outcome on average. And the first offer was a good predictor of the final price.
The explanation is that a number works as an anchor. Once it's been said, both sides start thinking in relation to it. A high first offer sends the other side looking for reasons it might be right, and a low one makes you adjust your expectations downward without noticing.
The anchor can be lifted
The most important finding was that the effect could be stopped. When the person who hadn't made the first offer focused instead on something that pointed away from the anchor, the advantage disappeared. That could be the other side's alternatives, meaning what they would do if you didn't reach an agreement, the lowest price the other side could actually accept, or their own goal.
- You think about their number You adjust toward it, often without noticing.
- You think about your own goal Their number has less power over the outcome.
The first offer steers, but only if it's what you're thinking about.
The experiments involved price negotiations in practice settings, not real salary conversations, and a salary is also about your relationship with the person you'll be working with. But the mechanism is the same. If you have your own number that you can justify, and you keep it firmly in mind, it matters less who speaks first.
Prepare your number before the conversation
A good first offer is high but defensible. Too high, and the conversation loses credibility. Too low, and you've negotiated away money before the conversation has even started. That's why preparation starts with finding out what the job usually pays.
Unions, professional associations and salary statistics in your country usually show what different jobs pay. Compare that with your experience, your region and what you've actually accomplished over the past year. Then come up with three numbers: the lowest you can accept, the one you think is reasonable, and the high one you open with.
Four paths into the conversation
Find your number. For you if you don't know what's reasonable. Look up salary statistics for your profession and ask someone in the same field what they think is a reasonable level. First step: write down your three numbers today.
Say your number first. For you if you're prepared. Open with your high number and three reasons that support it: what you've done, what you're responsible for, what the market pays. Then stay quiet and let the other person respond. First step: write your opening line and say it out loud three times.
Hold on to your goal. For you if the other side has already named a number, or if it's been decided that they go first. Don't let their number become the starting point. Respond with your own goal and your reasons, not with an offer just above theirs. First step: write down what you'll say if they open with a number below your lowest.
Build your case. For you if you want to go further, and it's the most demanding path because it takes six months. Every month, write down what you've done that got results: problems you solved, responsibility you took on, praise you received. By your next salary conversation, you'll have concrete examples instead of just a feeling that you've worked hard. First step: today, write your first note about something you've done this month.
If you'd rather change jobs than change your salary, there's more on that in the guide to work and career, and if money is already a worry, personal finance can help.
When the answer is no
A no today doesn't have to be a no forever. Ask what it would take for you to get the salary you asked for, and when you can meet again. Write down the answer and follow up on it. That way the conversation still gave you something: a clear path to next time.
A first step today: find out what others in your profession and region earn, and write down three numbers: your lowest, your reasonable and your high.
This is the understanding and a first step. Atlas is where it becomes a habit. Under Work & career you'll find Today's three, where you write down the day's most important tasks every morning, and The shutdown, which puts a clear end to your workday. If you add Study & career as its own area, you also get Deadline check, where once a week you look at what's coming up, like a salary conversation. Try Atlas free for 7 days, and cancel whenever you want.